Biden in White House: Opportunity or Obstacle for Bangladesh!

Power is shifting in the United States on Wednesday amid unprecedented bitterness. Donald Trump is leaving and Joe Biden is being sworn in as the new president.

But will this reshuffle in the United States, the world's number one superpower, have any effect on Bangladesh at all? Humayun Kabir, a former Bangladeshi diplomat, and Mehnaz Momen, a professor at Texas A&M International University in the United States, gave a possible answer to this question to BBC Bangla.

Both analysts believe that the new US administration's relationship with South and Southeast Asian countries, such as Bangladesh, will largely depend on what kind of relationship Joe Biden wants with China.

Former ambassador Humayun Kabir said, "Whether the new US administration appears as an opportunity or an obstacle for Bangladesh depends largely on what kind of relationship this government wants with China."

He said the Trump administration had started a kind of "warlike" behavior in its competition with China. "I think Biden will try to make a difference in the nature of the competition with China. He would like to turn it into an economic competition. "We will try to have closer relations with China's neighbors."

Mr. Kabir said if Joe Biden adopts that strategy, opportunities will be created for Bangladesh, new opportunities will be created for business with America.

But at the same time, he thinks that some challenges may appear for the government of Bangladesh. "Trump has not bothered about democracy anywhere else in the world. We think Joe Biden will be more focused on democracy. We may need extra work there. "

Democracy, freedom of speech

The West has long been concerned about democracy, freedom of speech and the human rights situation in Bangladesh. Can America's vigilance and surveillance increase in this regard?

Professor Mehnaz Momen said it is true that Democrats always care more about democracy or human rights, but the main challenge facing Joe Biden at the moment is the internal situation in America.

"There are a lot of questions about freedom of speech inside America right now. The controversy continues to grow over the way big technology companies are demonstrating their power and influence. "

In this situation, there is a lot of talk inside the United States about how much Joe Biden can focus on democracy or freedom of speech in the outside world, or how much moral authority his administration will have.

Professor Momen believes that the basis of America's relations with the outside world, including Bangladesh, will be "economic and trade."

"The competition Joe Biden wants with China is economic competition. So maybe he will make an attempt to form alliances with the countries of South and Southeast Asia. Bangladesh may benefit from that.

The Rohingya Crisis and Joe Biden

Professor Momen said that while the Joe Biden government did not pay much attention to Bangladesh's internal affairs, some issues, such as the Rohingya issue, could be of increasing importance to the United States.

"The way in which foreign cooperation has lost importance under Trump has not done enough to put pressure on Myanmar at the international level on the Rohingya issue. That situation could change for the better. "

Will Joe Biden really care about the Rohingya crisis? Humayun Kabir thinks that there is no easy answer to this question.

However, he said some people at the State Department and at the national security level have hired Joe Biden who knows South Asia well.

"Kurt Campbell, who is in charge of the Asia-Pacific region in Joe Biden's national security department, is very knowledgeable about the region. Moreover, the journey towards democracy in Myanmar started during the Obama administration. Mr Obama also visited Myanmar. There is an opportunity to restore those old contacts. "

Mr. Kabir said that in the changed reality, if Bangladesh can properly negotiate with the new government in Washington, then the Rohingya issue can be facilitated. "The United States has the power to create effective pressure, if it pays attention."

However, Humayun Kabir thinks that there are complications in this regard, and the reason is China. "If the United States puts pressure on Myanmar, it could be sensitive for China. Bangladesh is already talking to China about this. As far as I know, there will be a tripartite meeting in two days. As a result, the matter is not very easy.

"If the United States and China can be brought together on one platform, it is hoped that an opportunity will be created to solve the Rohingya problem. It requires sharp prudent diplomacy. "

Al Qaeda in Bangladesh

A recent statement by outgoing US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Islamic militancy has also raised concerns and anger in Bangladesh.

In a statement on the State Department's website on January 12, he said al-Qaeda's activities in many countries around the world. Pompeo also raises the issue of Bangladesh. He said al Qaeda had attacked Bangladesh in the past, and that there was a possibility in the future. At the same time, Bangladesh has strongly protested.

Why did Mr. Pompeo suddenly say that? Is it his personal opinion or the US administration in the same way? Can the Biden administration have the same attitude towards Al Qaeda risks in Bangladesh?

Professor Mehnaz Momen thinks that the US administration may have a similar attitude toward the risks of al Qaeda's activities in Bangladesh, and this suspicion may be within the Joe Biden administration.

'' The character of the Biden administration will be much more neo-liberal. Such liberals exaggerate the risk of terrorism. "

Humayun Kabir thinks that Bangladesh has rightly protested against this statement, but he said that instead of protesting, Bangladesh should investigate why Mr. Pompeo said so.

'' If the U.S. State Department's analysis of Mr. Pompeo also said that then they have to communicate with them diplomatically to understand the basis of their concerns. If there is a problem, how can it be solved. Because when the United States says that, it spreads all over the world. An international idea is created. "

But the big question is, how much importance does the United States give to Bangladesh - no matter which administration comes to that country?

Professor Momen thinks that economic growth has increased the importance of Bangladesh. The way in which the economy of Bangladesh has grown in the last 20 years is undoubtedly important. Lots of readymade garments are exported from Bangladesh to America. However, the importance of Bangladesh will depend on the Sino-US relations.

"If the hard power we saw under Trump is transformed into soft power, if Joe Biden adopts a strategy of putting pressure on China by forging closer ties with its neighbors, then Bangladesh may be important."

Humayun Kabir also agrees with this. But to seize that opportunity, in his words, "we need some extra initiative."