Desk Report
Publish: 26 Aug 2021, 12:59 pm
Representational Image || Photo: Collected
An extra 267,000 infants will likely have died in 2020 in low
and middle-income countries as a result of the economic downturn caused by
COVID-19, finds a modelling study, published in the online journal BMJ Open.
This toll is 7% higher than expected for the year, say the
World Bank economist authors.
The global economy is expected to have contracted almost 5%
in the first year of the pandemic, increasing the numbers of people living in
poverty by 120 million.
And unlike economic crises in high-income countries, these
shocks in low-income countries generally increase deaths among vulnerable
groups, such as young children and the elderly.
Previously published projections of the likely impact of the
pandemic on indirect deaths--those not caused by COVID-19 itself--have focused
on the extent of assumed disruptions to essential health services.
The authors of this study looked instead at the impact of the
aggregate 'income shock' represented by the projected fall in Gross Domestic
Product (GDP)--the total value of a country's annual goods and services--on the
survival of children aged up to 12 months in low- and middle-income countries.
They linked data on GDP per head of the population to 5.2
million births, reported in Demographic and Health Surveys between 1985 and
2018. Most (82%) of these births were in low- and lower middle-income
countries.
They then applied International Monetary Fund economic growth
projections for 2019 and 2020 to predict the effect of the economic downturn in
2020 on infant deaths in 128 countries.
Their calculations indicated that an additional 267, 208
infants in low- and middle-income countries died in 2020, corresponding to just
short of a 7% increase in the number of infant deaths expected for that year.
The highest numbers of estimated excess infant deaths were in
South Asia (8 countries), totalling 113,141, with more than a third of the
excess projected to be in India (99, 642). India has the highest number of
annual births (24, 238, 000) as well as a particularly large projected economic
shortfall of −17.3% for 2020.
The authors note that 28,000-50,000 excess infant deaths were
estimated for Africa after the financial crisis in 2009. This compares with an
estimated figure of 82,239 for 2020, reflecting the larger estimated shortfalls
in GDP caused by the pandemic.
They accept several limitations to their projected figures,
including that their calculations drew on retrospective data, and that they
only considered the short-term impact of GDP fluctuations on infant death
rates.
And the difference between October 2019 and October 2020
economic growth projections was interpreted to represent only the effects of
the pandemic, even though some countries have experienced other major shocks,
such as natural disasters or political crises, that may also have affected
national income levels, they explain.
"Regardless of the exact number of projected deaths, the
large number of excess infant deaths estimated in our analysis underscores the
vulnerability of this age group to negative aggregate income shocks, such as
those induced by the COVID-19 pandemic," they write.
"Several mechanisms are likely driving this increase in
mortality among children 0-1 year of age: impoverishment at the household level
will lead to worse nutrition and care practices for infants and reduced ability
to access health services, while the economic crisis might also affect the
supply and quality of services offered by the health systems," they
explain.
While they focused on the likely impact on infant survival,
other vulnerable groups are likely to have been affected, they add.
"As countries, health systems, and the wider global
community continue efforts to prevent and treat COVID-19, we should also
consider resources to stabilise health systems and strengthen social safety
nets in order to mitigate the human, social, and economic consequences of the
pandemic and related lockdown policies," they conclude.
Subscribe Shampratik Deshkal Youtube Channel
Topic : Infant Deaths Downturn Economy
© 2024 Shampratik Deshkal All Rights Reserved. Design & Developed By Root Soft Bangladesh