hm-atif-wafik

COVID-19: We May Face a 'Different World' after This Epidemic

'Billions of people will become unemployed in a few weeks. In the terror of an invisible enemy, every man will avoid another man, at least ten hands away.'

What were you doing in the first week of January this year? Remember? The new year has just begun. You probably had a lot of plans for this new year. Lots of dreams. Lots of promise.

Let's say you met one of the world's most famous futurists in the first week of January. He told you that in just three months, hundreds of millions of people around the world would be trapped in their homes. The big cities will feel like lifeless mortals.

Roads will remain deserted even during the day. Schools, colleges, and universities will be shut. Shops, bars, restaurants, and shopping malls will remain closed. All sports will be postponed- even the Olympic Games will be canceled. Prisoners will be asked to leave the jail and go home.

Each country will close their borders. Aviation will be closed. The stock market will collapse. In the supermarket, people will fight for toilet rolls and food packets. 

Billions of people will become unemployed in a few weeks. In the terror of an invisible enemy, every man will avoid another man, at least ten hands away.

Will the behavior of staying away from each other become inherent in us?

In January, you would dismiss this prophecy as crazy delirium. This futurist seemed insane. It was difficult to find people to believe him.

Let's fast-forward and come back on April 21st.

As you read this sentence, about one-third of the world's people, or about 2.3 billion people, are sitting at home at the moment. There is no precedent in the history of human civilization for so many people being imprisoned in their homes at the same time, continuously, for so long. The world system of the 21st century has been shattered by an invisible virus.

No one can give a clear idea of when to get rid of this condition. But coronavirus experts and futurists who have already begun to talk about the afterlife are all in agreement: the world is no longer what it used to be. The effects of what has happened in the last few months will be far-reaching.

After this epidemic, everything from our work-daily life-travel-entertainment to business-trade-economy-state-society will change.

Here's what experts say about the next world of coronaviruses:

Politics: The state of mass surveillance

Yuval Noah Harari's statement has been the most talked-about coronavirus world for the last few days. He is basically a historian. The most famous of his books is 'Sapiens'.

In a recent interview with the BBC and in an article published in the Financial Times, he expressed concern that the epidemic could lead to a state of mass surveillance, in which the government not only knows every citizen's every move, but also their emotions, likes and dislikes. 

In a nutshell, his thoughts are as follows: The short-term measures that are being taken during this epidemic may later become a permanent measure. And that path could lead to the rise of an autocratic state system, where mass surveillance will continue. On the other hand, instead of globalization, many countries will follow the nationalist let alone policy.

It will start by inserting a microchip under human skin in the name of dealing with the epidemic or by handcuffing for tracking. The government may say that this is a punishment for those who break the rules. But in reality, it will be useful to keep a constant watch on the whole population.

Fifty years ago, the KGB did not have the opportunity to monitor 240 million people in the Soviet Union. The KGB had to rely on their agents. But now the technology has come with which it is possible to observe the momentary movements of every citizen of the state.

In the name of preventing the epidemic, some countries have already started such work. China is the most advanced in this regard. All people's smartphones are being monitored there. People are being monitored with millions of cameras that can recognize their appearance.

People are being forced to measure their body temperature and share health information so that authorities can quickly identify who is infected with the coronavirus. Not only that, the people who came in contact with him are also being found quickly.

But in the next step, this surveillance can go to a more intensive stage.

Suppose the government of a country demanded that every citizen should wear a biometric bracelet. This bracelet will monitor a person's heartbeat and body temperature 24 hours a day.

The data that will be collected in this way will go to the huge database of the government. Will be analyzed with special algorithms. With the help of this algorithm, the government will know who is healthy and who is sick. Not only this, with the help of this website you can do wonders. As a result, any contagious disease can be suppressed as soon as it spreads.

Sounds great to hear, isn't it! So where is the problem?

Who is going to which website, which news link is being clicked, which video is being watched, it gives an idea about his personal taste and personality starting from his political thoughts? But what if my body temperature, blood pressure, and heartbeat fluctuate when I read something or watch a video, what makes me laugh and what makes me cry, or angry?

Technology that can detect our cough can also detect our smile. If governments and big corporations start collecting these biometric data en masse, they will know us better than we know ourselves.

They will not only get an idea of our feelings in advance but will be able to use them to their advantage. What Cambridge Analytica did (data hacking) would seem to be more of a Stone Age thing than that.

Suppose in 2030 all people in North Korea have to wear a biometric bracelet 24 hours a day. Now, if someone's blood gets hot with anger after listening to the speech of the "Great Leader" of the country, the people of the "Great Leader" will know that.

Economy: The Great Depression

The biggest concern is what will happen to the economy in the world after the coronavirus epidemic. Many believe that the epidemic may be under control, but it will take many years to recover from the devastating damage it has done to the world economy.

Let's take a look at what has happened in the world economy in the last two months. Almost all major economies in the world have collapsed since the first week of March, which is said to be worse than the 2008 financial crisis. Some say that the Great Depression, which began in the 1930's, will be overcome by the current economic crisis.

In the previous two crises, the stock market fell 50 percent, the credit market almost closed, and businesses went bankrupt. Unemployment exceeded ten percent. But this whole thing happened over a period of three years.

And just three weeks after the start of the global coronavirus epidemic.

It took only 15 days to read 20 percent of the US stock market. The US stock market has never been so fast. US Treasury Secretary Steve Manchin has warned that the unemployment rate could exceed 20 percent. That means losing one in five jobs in the United States.

All the terrible predictions of what will happen to the world economy in the coming days have already begun to come. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has already warned that the world economy will not be in such a bad state after the Great Depression of the 1930s.

According to the IMF, the world economy will shrink by three percent this year. If the epidemic continues, governments and central banks around the world will have to deal with the situation. And the economies of rich countries cannot be restored before 2022.

Nuriel Rubini, a professor at the Stern School of Business at New York University, predicts that the blood will freeze. Professor Rubini wrote an article on the site of the World Economic Forum.

According to him, economic activity around the world did not stop during the Great Depression of 1930 or World War II. Especially the way China, the United States and Europe are stagnant now. According to him, the risk of an economic recession worse than the Great Depression of the thirties is increasing day by day.

Simon Meyer, a researcher at the University of Surrey in Britain, says this year's crisis is very different from previous ones. When such a crisis is created in the economy, the government itself starts spending more money, so that money goes into people's pockets and people start buying more things. As a result, trade and commerce intensified and the recession began to subside. The successful application of this economic theory by John Maynard Keynes has been made during many recessions in the past.

But the reason for this crisis is that the government itself has stopped all economic activities through the lockdown. In other words, the goal of the government's policy is to keep the economy lifeless for the time being. What is the way out of this?

Simon Meyer says the economic policy of many governments to deal with the crisis can be called "state capitalism."

In Britain, the government has promised to pay people up to 80 percent of their salaries so that people are not laid off during lockdowns. Britain's Conservative Party government would adopt such an economic policy that was unbelievable, unimaginable even two months ago. Governments in many other European countries have adopted similar policies.

This huge role of the government in the economy will continue for a long time to come when the lockdown goes up and economic activities begin in full swing.

According to some economists, the boom in the market economy that has prevailed for decades may be replaced by a kind of state-capitalist system or greater public sector participation in the economy in the years to come.

The last nail in the coffin of globalization?

Some are describing the Kovid-Nineteen epidemic as the last nail in the coffin of globalization.

According to historian Yuval Noah Harari, coronavirus will be another big trend in the next world, the rise of radical nationalism. Every state will want to protect itself by closing the door on the face of others.

Many such incidents have already taken place. Italy has directly complained that other European countries did not stand by on the day of its disaster.

President Trump's "America First" and "Let's go it alone" policy became clearer during this crisis. The fact that he tried to buy a test for coronavirus from a German company only for the United States has created more tensions between him and Europe.

Stephen M. Walt, a professor of international relations at Harvard University, said in an article published in Foreign Policy that the epidemic would further fuel such nationalism.

"In short, the next world of Kovid-Nineteen will be less open, less prosperous and less independent than before."

Chatham House executive director Robin Nibblet is as clear as ever.

"This is the end of what we now mean by globalization," he said in an article published in Foreign Policy. Coronavirus is the last nail in the coffin of economic globalization. The kind of globalization that was seen at the beginning of the 21st century, in which both sides benefited, the world is unlikely to return to that state. ”

But Mahbubani, a teenager at the National University of Singapore, thinks globalization will not stop, its focus will change.

“The COVID-Nineteen epidemic will not fundamentally change the economic dynamics of the world. Rather, it will accelerate the change that has already begun. Instead of US-centric globalization, the economy will lean towards China-centric globalization. ”

Work-leisure-travel

Remember the Soviet Union in the seventies or eighties? In the news of the daily life of the Soviets in the Western media, people had to stand in line at the shops to buy even a little soap or comb.

Such a line in front of any grocery, pharmacy or food store in almost desolate London or any other city in Europe at Lockdown is now a daily scene. People seem to have mastered this habit of social distance or social distance within a few weeks. But when the lockdown goes up, then?

Experts say that whether it's a lockdown or a get-up, the way we walk, shop, eat, travel, work, study - all of these things are going to be radically changed by the coronavirus.

Some changes have already taken place. Many people around the world are now working from home. Technology has made it very easy. Many schools and universities are teaching them online.

One of the most affected sectors in coronavirus is aviation and tourism. Experts believe that if the epidemic persists and the discovery of the coronavirus vaccine is delayed, these two sectors will suffer irreparable damage. This means that the kind of uninterrupted travel that people are now accustomed to for work or leisure will change a lot. Air travel will become much more expensive. International tourism will collapse.

David Passig is a futurologist. He is the head of the Virtual Reality Lab at the School of Education at Bar Ilan University in Israel. A book was written by him, 'The Future Code and 2048' is quite popular.

David Pasig thinks that how long these changes last will depend on how long the coronavirus epidemic lasts. In an interview with the Jerusalem Post, he said there were three possible scenarios.

In the first case, the probable cause is that the epidemic will be under control in a year or two. However, the epidemic will kill about one million people around the world. In this case, people will quickly forget the horrors of the epidemic and quickly return to their old habits.

But the second scenario, where the epidemic will last for about five years and about ten million people will die, will take another five years to cope. David Pasig describes the situation as "probable" and says it will be difficult to cope with the economic downturn. Yet after a while, people will return to their normal behavior, as happened after the Spanish flu pandemic.

David Pasig's third scenario is the most terrifying. According to him, this is a 'wild card scenario', which means it is very unlikely. In this case, the epidemic will last for more than ten years and ten crore to thirty crore people will die in it.

According to him, in such cases, there will be a lasting change in human behavior.

"Human-to-human contact will decrease and it will take ten to twenty years to overcome the fear that has crept into people's minds when it comes to contact with others. And because of this human behavior, new types of services, industries, science and many more will be developed. ”

According to him, as a result, the predominance of computer science and software development is now ubiquitous, but leaving it behind biology will become important.

Source: BBC Bangla 

He is Journalist at British Broadcasting Corporation

Translated by Kanchan Nathan

Subscribe Shampratik Deshkal Youtube Channel

Comments

Shampratik Deshkal Epaper

Logo

Address: 10/22 Iqbal Road, Block A, Mohammadpur, Dhaka-1207

© 2024 Shampratik Deshkal All Rights Reserved. Design & Developed By Root Soft Bangladesh