Desk Report
Publish: 24 Sep 2022, 08:31 pm
A person holds an artwork depicting Mahsa Amini as people take part in a protest following her death || Photo: REUTERS
The popular revolt in Iran triggered by the death of a woman
held by police is unlikely to pose an immediate threat to clerical rulers whose
elite security forces have crushed one protest after another in recent years.
But the protests, the biggest since 2019, are another crack
in the structure of the Islamic Republic, which has been facing unrest over
economic hardship, inflation and freedoms.
Enraged by the death last week of Mahsa Amini, 22, who was
arrested by morality police for wearing "unsuitable attire", women
challenged the country's Islamic dress code and took charge, waving and burning
their veils. Some publicly cut their hair as furious crowds called for the fall
of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
As the government weighs its options, Amini's case has
touched a raw nerve and unleashed years of pent up anger over the mandatory
hijab.
Her death will embolden more and more women to challenge the
government over dress restrictions even if the protests which spread to most of
Iran's 31 provinces fade or are stamped out, analysts say.
"The death of Mahsa Amiri released decades of suppressed energy and will among women to fight back. It’s not the first time, but this time is different," said Omid Memarian, an Iran analyst based in the United States.
Pro-government peoples rally against the recent protest
gatherings in Iran, after the Friday prayer ceremony in Tehran, Iran September
23, 2022. Iranians have staged mass protests over the case of Mahsa Amini, 22,
who died last week after being arrested by the morality police for wearing
"unsuitable attire".
Under Iran's Islamic Sharia law, imposed after the 1979
revolution, women are obliged to cover their hair and wear long, loose-fitting
clothes to conceal their figures. Violators face public rebuke, fines or
arrest.
But decades after the revolution, clerical rulers still
struggle to enforce the law, with many women of all ages and backgrounds
wearing tight-fitting, thigh-length coats and brightly coloured scarves pushed
back to expose plenty of hair
While that defiance is common, the shock over Amini's death
and nationwide protests have raised the stakes as Iranian women call for more
freedoms.
Waves of the hijab protests have hit the clerical
establishment in the past years. In 2014, rights activist Masih Alinejad
started a Facebook campaign "My Stealthy Freedom", where she shared
pictures of unveiled Iranian women sent to her.
"Now that protesters are clearly taking to the streets
to protest Mahsa (Jina) Amini’s murder and demanding change, it is beyond
debate that ultimately people seek the change of the system and want human
rights and representative government," said Gissou Nia, director of the
Strategic Litigation Project at the Atlantic Council.
So far Iran's Revolutionary Guards and Basij militia have
been relatively restrained, but they could be mobilised quickly. Warnings from
the army and the intelligence minister on Friday showed they are poised to
crack down as they have done before.
In the past authorities have let protests run their course for several days, only resorting to full-scale force if the unrest starts to appear open-ended or out of control.
"The Revolutionary Guards and Basij are brutal, loyal,
and ultimately effective at suppressing protest — and they have significant
experience over the years in doing so," said Eurasia Group analyst Henry
Rome.
"The protests pose less of a risk to immediate
government stability than to its legitimacy and sustainability over the longer
term."
Iran was rocked by unrest in 2017 and 2018. In 2019, Iran
said 200,000 people took part in what may have been the biggest anti-government
demonstration in the 40-year history of the Islamic Republic. Reports say 1,500
were killed by security forces.
Meir Javedanfar, who teaches Iranian politics at Reichman
University in Israel, described the latest protests as a milestone for Iranians
angered by "a corrupt and incompetent regime".
"These protests will not be the last. We will see more.
But we are unlikely to see a revolution until and unless there is a leader and
at least part of Iran's armed forces starts siding with the people against the
regime. None of this has happened yet," he said._Reuters
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