Coronavirus: July Will Be Crucial for BD

Experts believe that July could be a particularly important month for coronavirus infections in Bangladesh.

Because, Eid-ul-Azha, one of the biggest religious festivals of Muslims in Bangladesh is going to be celebrated at the end of July.

On one hand, people are going home, while on the other, they are fearing that the infection will increase due to management from buying animals for sacrifice.

According to the Bangladesh Department of Health, the total number of COVID-19 patients identified so far is 1 lakh, 82 thousand 417 people. A total of 2,052 people died. Also on Sunday, 55 people died.

Now an average of more than three thousand patients is being identified in Bangladesh every day.

How will be the situation due to coronavirus in Bangladesh?

ASM Alamgir, scientific officer of the Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research in Bangladesh, says the rate of infection has remained stable over the past few weeks. He told that they have been keeping a close eye on the nature of the infection since the opening of office courts, shops and garments and by analyzing the data collected in the final stages of risk, they have seen the infection in a stable state over the last few weeks.

"The reproduction rate of the virus, called R-Knot, has dropped below 1 in the last two weeks in Bangladesh, which is a positive sign," said Alamgir.

And with knots, scientists are trying to understand how many people can be infected by one individual. Mr Alamgir said that ''the calculation of R-Knot's in Bangladesh reveals that since an infected person is now at risk of infecting less than one person, the situation is promising.''

"From what we see in the analysis of the data, if all the control measures are put together, the infection will start to decrease by the end of July."

However, he fears that if the trend of going to and from the cattle market during Eid-ul-Azha increases again, the stagnation of the infection could take a turn for the worse.

'' We could be in a dangerous situation. If the cattle market and the people go home in groups on Eid-ul-Adha in a risky situation - if it cannot be controlled, then we may fall into another risk. The number of patients may increase again, '' he says.

Sharmin Yasmin, the chairperson of the Public Health Foundation, Bangladesh, has a different opinion. "The spread of the disease has slowed down a bit, but it's still not stable," she said. On one hand, there is the Eid of Sacrifice, on the other, there is a flood in many places. But that is another risk. In this case, it is very difficult for people to follow the health rules.

He suggests that those who go to the sacrificial hats to buy cows or sell cows should make co-ordination in terms of health protection.

Therefore, she advises those who can deliver the sacrificial meat by completing the whole process without buying cows online or going to the market, to take help.

Experts say that during Eid-ul-Adha if people do not properly observe issues such as social distance and health precautions, it can have a negative impact on the coronavirus infection situation.

Benazir Ahmed, a former director of the Disease Control Branch at the Bangladesh Department of Health, says there will be a combination of two factors, on which the increase or decrease in coronavirus infection will largely depend.

"If the lockdown is being carried out locally in areas like Rajabazar, if it can be implemented in many places at once, patients can be kept in isolation, then maybe it will help prevent infection," he said.

''But there will again be a risk of infection spreading due to the sacrificial market. Those who come to these markets with cows, the disease can come through them, through them it can spread all over the country''.

''Similarly, the infection can spread to others through those who go to buy cows. At the same time, it can be spread through meat cutting and those who will collect meat, '' says Bay-Nazir Ahmed.

As a result, he said, he would have to wait until Eid al-Adha to understand what the status of the infection would be.

Mistakes?

The first coronavirus patient was identified in Bangladesh on March 8. Then about four months passed.

It was said at that time that the month of April would be especially critical for Bangladesh. It was then said that the month of May would play a special role in the coronavirus infection.

Now we are talking about the month of July. What is the reason for this long four months growing infection?

ASM Alamgir, chief scientific officer of IEDCR, said, ''General holidays were given at the right time after the infection started. But since then we have made many small unintentional mistakes. "

"For example, on April 5, the garment factories brought a group of workers to Dhaka," he said. Went back again. That created a risk. "

"It has been announced from April 26 that the garment factories will be open from May 2 in accordance with the health rules. But those who can't follow the hygiene rules, those garments were also opened from the 26th. Thousands of workers came. Then the shopping market was opened on Eid. Not everyone there followed the hygiene rules. We made these mistakes. "

Many experts say that the coronavirus situation has not been brought under control due to the non-implementation of the general holiday.

ASM Alamgir says, ''A limited number of offices or businesses have been opened before or after Eid. But in this limited form, we do not understand the word. In most cases, health rules do not apply. There is no hand washing system in the city, and not everyone can afford a hand sanitizer. I am talking about social distance, but when the whole activity of the city starts in Bangladesh, keeping a distance of three feet is a difficult task.''

How successful is the area-based lockdown?

Sharmin Yasmin, the chairperson of the Public Health Foundation Bangladesh, said, "In fact, lockdown is a scientific method, but in the case of East Rajabazar, there was a lack of coordination, so it was not successful. Home screenings could have been done, but the community could not have been fully involved. I think there was a lack of preparation. "

He suggested using these experiences to correct mistakes in the next local lockdown.

However, ASM Alamgir says, “The number of patients in Rajabazar has increased, it is not true. In Rajabazar, the patient has come down to almost zero. If you talk about the successful lockdown, Rajabazar is an example. We have had success like Tolarbagh in Rajabazar too.

He says the details will be announced in a few days.

Source: UNB