Uzair M Younus
Publish: 05 Nov 2022, 10:08 pm
Ousted Pakistan PM Imran Khan was shot in the shin on Thursday when his anti-government protest convoy came under attack || FILE PHOTO: REUTERS
"Chaos isn't a pit. Chaos is a ladder," says
Littlefinger, in the global hit television series Game of Thrones. In his
conversation with Lord Varys, the Master of Whisperers who is also known as the
Spider, Littlefinger concludes by saying, "Many who try to climb it fail
and never get to try again."
Chaos is unfolding in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. It
has been for many years.
In fact, some may argue that chaos has been a constant since
Pakistan's birth, starting with the assassination of the country's first prime
minister, Liaquat Ali Khan. The chaos has engulfed many, including the likes of
the first prime minister himself, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, Ziaul Haq, and most
recently, Benazir Bhutto.
Imran Khan, the authoritarian populist who has found a way
to channel the rage of millions of citizens, is the most recent leader trying
to climb the ladder of chaos.
And he nearly failed.
Thursday's assassination attempt on the former prime minister,
who has been on the campaign trail since his ousting in the country's
first-ever vote of no confidence in Parliament, is only going to stoke more
mayhem.
With sharp lines already drawn not just across the political
spectrum, but much of society, the stakes could not have been higher. What has
been the most serious threat to national cohesion since 1971, something that
this author has been warning about since the vote of no confidence, has only
become more dangerous.
Khan has survived, for now, and will live to fight another
day. This brush with death will only reinforce Khan's belief that he is on this
earth for a purpose – to vanquish the corrupt mafias that have drained his
beloved country of all the potential and riches that it has to offer.
A born-again Muslim, Khan is fundamentally guided by this
mission, which he sees as a fight between good and evil. Anyone and everyone
who is opposed to this mission is on the side of evil. This belief will only be
reinforced by this second brush with death (Imran sustained serious injuries
while climbing a stage at a rally in Lahore in 2013).
But this chaos is not only being stoked by Khan. In fact, he
is a creation of the powers that have harnessed chaos for decades. And it is
just an ironic twist of fate that the bearers of the powers have created a
being that is more powerful than them, at least for the time being.
And it is for this reason that this most recent escalation
is so serious. For both Khan and his creators realise that to make one or the
other fail, the ladder of chaos must be made that much more dangerous, such that
only one of them survives.
Meanwhile, those politically opposed to Khan are yearning
for his former benefactors to bring him down – and staring at irrelevance
should this plan fail. They cannot, at least for the foreseeable future,
compete with Khan. They have no ability, no capacity, and no narrative with
which to weaken their mortal enemy.
Many will argue that this is not true. After all, they would
say, Khan is only seeking the support of his former benefactors to bring about
the revolution that he is seeking. But these folks miss the clear signal that
was delivered in that unprecedented press conference: the current leadership of
the army, which has decided to remain apolitical, is going to be around for at
least the next 15 years.
This means that the only way for Khan to achieve his goals
is to force his former allies and benefactors to bend the knee in submission.
And if Pakistan's history is any guide, forcing the country's powerful military
establishment to bend the knee in submission, that too to a civilian, is easier
said than done.
And so, the raging storms that have engulfed the Islamic
Republic are only going to get worse in the coming days and months. As a
result, a society that has been pummelled by sky-high inflation, unprecedented
floods, a stagnant economy, and malnutrition, is only going to be further
devastated. Citizens and their well-being are not even an afterthought in this
cynical Game of Thrones and with every passing day, they will be worse off.
Pakistan's external allies, particularly the ones on whose
charity the country barely makes ends meet, will be watching with disdain. They
have had delegation upon delegation of elites come to their doors, seeking a
bailout. For these external benefactors, it is simply bad strategy to shore up
the country's economy, for they do not know who will and who will not survive.
So long as Pakistan's elites believe that chaos is a ladder
that they climb and stay atop, the continuous cycle of instability will
continue. What will change, however, is the standard of living of current and
future generations. And these standards will go anywhere but up.
[This article was first published in Dawn.]
[Uzair M Younus is the director of the Pakistan Initiative at
the Atlantic Council's South Asia Center and host of the podcast Pakistonomy.]
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