How Khan’s Controversial Arrest Threatens Stability in Pakistan And What’s Next

On Tuesday, the former prime minister of Pakistan Imran Khan was arrested on charges of corruption. The extraordinary scene was caught on video, with Khan at the centre of a gaggle of agents, all dressed in black riot gear who are pulling him into an armoured truck outside the high court in the capital, Islamabad.

The arrest triggered nationwide protests. Hundreds of people have been detained and at least five have died. In response to the violent clashes with the police, authorities in three of Pakistan’s four provinces have imposed an emergency order banning all gatherings. His arrest marks the start of what could be a violent showdown that threatens Pakistan’s already fragile political stability.

I spoke to Dr Farzana Shaikh, an associate fellow at Chatham House, about how the situation has escalated and the years of fraught political conflict that have led to this moment. That’s right after the headlines.

In-depth: Will Khan tough it out – or capitulate to the military’s demands?

Since his ousting last year after a parliamentary vote of no confidence, Khan has spearheaded a campaign against the new government over its economic mismanagement and its relationship with Pakistan’s influential military. Once it was an ally to Khan, helping him win the election in 2018, but Khan has accused the military and Pakistan’s current prime minister of being behind the assassination attempt he survived last November – an allegation that is vehemently denied.

In turn, the government has levelled a host of corruption charges against Khan, for one of which he was appearing in court on Tuesday before his arrest. After Khan was ejected from office last year, the new regime claimed that while in government he had struck a quid pro quid deal with a major property tycoon in Pakistan causing a loss of more than $239m to the national exchequer. Khan denies these allegations, which are just one part of a mounting effort by the government and military to ensure that he cannot run for office again. But with much of the country behind him, and willing to say so, will these efforts prove successful?

The background

Imran Khan entered politics in the mid-1990s as the leader of a newly formed political party known as the Pakistan Movement for Justice, or the PTI. The young, handsome, popular former cricketer with anti-establishment politics quickly captured the country’s attention. He presented an alternative to the political establishment which was, perhaps ironically, riddled with allegations of corruption. “Both parties at the time were saddled with claims that they had become personal fiefdoms and that Pakistan had become entrenched dynastic politics,” Dr Farzana Shaikh told me.

As an anti-corruption figure, Khan also seemed to be an attractive choice for the military establishment: “They decided to nurture [him] into a political leader who would be more amenable and someone who wouldn’t always be at loggerheads with the military.” It took a number of years to get his party off the ground, but by 2018 Khan had enough support to win the election. It was not a landslide though – Khan still had to work with opposition parties as the leader of a coalition government. Which, it seems, did not work for him.

“He’s not a man who is known to compromise readily and he does not do deals,” Shaikh said. “Day in and day out, he spent his time haranguing the opposition and accusing them of being crooks and thieves, and immoral men and women.”

As a result, the opposition would not cooperate and Khan quickly found his reform programme grinding to a halt, unable to build a consensus. As the political situation in parliament deteriorated, “things were also going pear shaped with the military, the main reason being his decision to interfere in military appointments, which was a red line for them,” Shaikh said. This, in tandem with foreign policy choices that were hostile to the US, led to a political crisis that culminated in various groups coming together to oust Khan in 2022.

His arrest

Khan has more than 100 cases registered against him, on everything from sedition and corruption, to terrorism and even blasphemy. Whatever the full truth of the latest charges, there is little doubt that his arrest is a politically motivated attempt to ensure that he does not run for office again.

Shaikh pointed out that this kind of subterfuge is nothing new in Pakistan: “Cases being registered against politicians generally on charges of corruption is a game that all parties have played.” Imran Khan himself has been accused of using this power against opposition leaders. “Not only have charges of corruption been widely politicised, they have also been widely weaponised by political parties,” Shaikh added.

One of two things can happen in Khan’s case, Shaikh said. “Either the arrest will have made him more amenable to the military’s demands or he toughs it out and refuses to capitulate.” If he chooses to do the latter, there is a good chance that the military, through the courts, will use one of these cases to disqualify him from politics. “This is also by no means unusual. Imran Khan’s predecessor, Nawaz Sharif, was disqualified on extremely flimsy charges and he had to step down.”

Pakistan’s economy

Pakistan is facing an economic crisis. Inflation has risen to 36.4%, meaning that people cannot afford basic necessities including healthcare. The country is on the edge of defaulting on its debt and is still waiting for a $1.1bn bailout from the IMF, which would be a drop in the ocean of the $100bn total. Its usual backers, like Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, have also not come forward with the kind of assistance that they have offered in the past.

Counterintuitively, the dire economic situation has been Khan’s political saviour. “During Imran Khan’s tenure in office the economy was tanking slowly, and much of that has to do with the fact that he had alienated all the political parties to such an extent that no one would help him deliver on his economic programme,” said Shaikh. “So during his last year in office he saw his popularity plummet.”

However, the failure of the current government to resolve this crisis, which has become even more acute in the last year, has meant that the blame has shifted to them. “Khan is a very popular man at the moment, and if elections were to be held there’s no doubt that he would come in with a huge majority.”

What next?

This nexus of political and economic crisis threatens to tip Pakistan into a period of instability and unrest. This outcome however is not inevitable: “Stability can be restored, but that depends very much on political parties sitting together and resuming dialogue,” Shaikh said. However, there is no sign of that with volatility only rising following Khan’s arrest.

What happens next is unclear. Protests will continue, and the number of people getting arrested will grow. The very public nature of Khan’s arrest means that this will likely turn into a showdown that will tie up Pakistan’s politics and mire the upcoming election in controversy.

[This Article is written by Nimo Omer and was published in 'The Guardian']