Desk Report
Publish: 09 Nov 2022, 09:45 pm
Supporters of Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, waves signs during an election night party in Pittsburgh, Wednesday, Nov. 9, 2022 || AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar
For
weeks, Republicans predicted a “red wave” would carry them to power in
Congress, as voters' repudiated majority Democrats for failing to tame
skyrocketing inflation and address worries about rising crime.
The
reality appeared far different early Wednesday.
Rather
than a wholesale rejection of President Joe Biden and his party, the results
were far more mixed as returns from Tuesday’s midterms trickled in.
Many
Democratic incumbents proved surprisingly resilient, outperforming their
party’s own expectations. Meanwhile, Democrat John Fetterman won an open Senate
seat currently held by the GOP, while other key races that will determine
control of the chamber remain too early to call.
“When
you wake up tomorrow, we will be in the majority and Nancy Pelosi will be in
the minority,” House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy predicted early Wednesday.
He may
be right. But it appeared that likely Republican gains would come on far less
favorable terms than anticipated.
Here
are some takeaways from this year’s election:
TO BE
CONTINUED...
Republicans
hoped for a wipeout. They didn’t get it. After Democrats racked up several
hard-fought wins in swing districts, like Rep. Abigail Spanberger’s Virginia
seat, the sweeping wins many Republicans predicted had yet to materialize early
Wednesday.
Meanwhile,
the fate of Democrats narrow hold on the Senate was unclear.
Fetterman
defeated Dr. Mehmet Oz for a crucial Pennsylvania Senate seat vacated by
retiring Republican Sen. Pat Toomey. Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and former
NFL star Herschel Walker, a Republican, were locked in a close contest in
Georgia. The Wisconsin race between Republican Sen. Ron Johnson and Democrat
Mandela Barnes was too close to call.
And the
outcome of the two remaining two seats that will determine which party will
hold a Senate majority — Arizona and Nevada — may not be known for days because
both states conduct elections in part by mail ballots, which take a long time
to count.
HISTORY
LESSON
It’s
called history for a reason. The party that celebrates winning the White House
is usually mourning a loss in the midterms two years later.
Add to
that historical pattern an economy battered by inflation and teetering on
recession, throw in fears about crime, and the outcome is close to certain.
For
Biden and House Democrats, the likelihood of keeping power in the lower chamber
of Congress was always slight. Republicans have expected to gain enough seats
to retake the majority. If successful, which was not immediately clear
Wednesday morning, they also have plans to neuter Biden’s agenda for the next
two years.
Since
1906, there have been only three midterms in which the party of the president
in power gained House seats: 1934, when the country was struggling with a
Depression, 1998 when the U.S. was buoyed by a soaring economy, and 2002, when
President George W. Bush had a sky-high approval rating amid the national
feeling of unity after the Sept. 11 attacks.
IS
FLORIDA STILL A SWING STATE?
Gov.
Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio, both Republicans, offer the latest evidence
that Florida is becoming increasingly red. The two soared to early reelection
victories Tuesday, both winning Miami-Dade County, which Democrat Hillary
Clinton carried by 29 percentage points in 2016.
Florida
has been a classic battleground. It twice helped propel Barack Obama to the
White House. But the state, where the number of registered Democrats exceeded
Republicans in 2020, has shifted increasingly to the right. That’s thanks to
GOP inroads with Hispanic voters, as well as an influx of new residents,
including many retirees, drawn to its lack of an income tax as well as its
sunny weather.
“Democrats
really have to think about how they are going to rebuild there. The Obama
coalition no longer exists,” said Carlos Curbelo, a Republican former member of
Congress, who called Florida”off the map for the foreseeable future” to
Democrats.
DeSantis
won the governor’s office in 2018 by only about 30,000 votes. On Tuesday, he
flipped at least six counties that he lost that year. Those same counties were
carried by Biden just two years ago.
Some
Democrats blame some of Tuesday’s blowout losses to a lack of investment by
their party.
“This
is what happens when national Democrats decide to not spend money in the
state,” said Greg Goddard, a Democratic fundraising consultant from Florida who
raised money for Rep. Val Demings’ losing challenge of Rubio. “The pathway to
Democrats winning future presidential elections is very thin if you do not plan
to spend in Florida
WAS IT
A ‘RED WAVE’ OR A RIPPLE?
Whether
a red ripple will carry Republicans won’t likely be known for days or weeks as
states that conduct their elections largely by mail, such a California,
continue counting
One thing is certain: It’s unlikely to match 2010′s tea party wave, which netted 63 seats, or the Newt Gingrich-led House takeover of 1994, which ousted 54 Democrats and flipped the chamber to GOP control for the first time since the presidency of Dwight Eisenhower.
One reason that won’t happen? There just aren’t that many competitive seats.
The end result? Far less interest in compromise and more gridlock in the halls of Congress.
WHAT DO REPUBLICANS WANT?
Gingrich’s “Contract with America” was celebrated as a cornerstone of the Republicans’ 1994 House takeover for offering a concrete list of policies the GOP would pursue if put in power.
Now Republicans are far more circumspect about their aims.
“That’s a very good question. And I’ll let you know when we take it back,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell he told reporters in January.
McCarthy has offered up a “Commitment to America,” a list of priorities that fits on a pocket-sized card he carries with him that is heavy on slogans and light on detail.
Both may be attempting to avoid the plight of Gingrich whose “Contract with America” became a liability when Republicans failed to enact it.
House Republicans have said they intend to investigate Biden and his administration. They have also called for a renewed focus on fiscal restraint, a crackdown on illegal immigration at the southern border and increased domestic energy production.
Much of it may not matter. Biden, after all, has a veto pen.
MOST EXPENSIVE MIDTERMS
The 2022 elections are on track to cost $16.7 billion at the state and federal level, making them the most expensive midterms ever, according to the nonpartisan OpenSecrets.
For perspective: The contests will nearly double the cost of the 2010 midterm elections, more than double the 2014 midterms and are on pace to roughly equal the 2022 gross domestic product of Mongolia.
At least $1.1 billion given at the federal level so far this election season has come from a small coterie of donors, many of whom have favored conservative causes.
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